Thoughts following the recent shootings by and of police

I see a lot of similarities between killing of innocent and/or unarmed black men by police and terrorism by Muslims.

• In both cases, there definitely seems to be a strong disproportionate link. Yes, there are innocent and/or unarmed white people killed by police. Yes, there are non-Muslim terrorists. But neither of those changes the fact that black men are far more likely to be the victim of police shootings and terrorist attacks are far more likely to be committed by Muslims.
• In both cases, the "bad actors" are a tiny minority of the whole. The overwhelming majority of police officers never shot anyone. The overwhelming majority of Muslims would have nothing to do with terrorism.
• Nevertheless, in both cases, there is an awful lot of "I don't approve of this, but...." excuse making.
• In both cases, there is backlash against innocent people wrongly associated with the original injustice, be it anti-Muslim backlash or anti-police backlash. And some people get more concerned about the backlash than the initial injustice. And some people pull out "I don't approve of this backlash, but...."

There are, of course, some significant differences.

• With police shootings, there's SOME element of error. I don't think any cop sets out saying "I'm going to kill an innocent black man today." Terrorist attacks are deliberate.
• I think police should be held to a much higher standard than the average man on the street. It's unfair to expect perfection, but we're a long way from perfection.
• There is a much more established institutional framework around the police than there is around Islam. There are police authorities who can choose who to make police and fire those who aren't living up to standard. There's no real parallel by which "Muslim authorities" could formally expel a "bad Muslim" (like, say a Catholic could be formally excommunicated). And even if they were to do so, it's not like it would really impact their ability to carry out a terrorist attack.

There seem to be some real cultural problems both in law enforcement and in Islam, and while in neither case do you want to tar everyone with the same brush, it seems they could both do with being less defensive and really looking inward to try to fix things. At the same time, a) I'm neither a cop nor a Muslim, so it's pretty easy for me to say they should get their house in order, but b) I have no idea what that would mean in any specific way.

Thoughts on Brexit

NOTE: For those of you who have been reading my sailing blog, first, thank you for following it. But, second, this is not a sailing post. This is more what I started the blog for in the first place, a place to write on miscellaneous, often political topics, to put into print things I've been going over in my head, with little expectation of anyone actually reading. But if you'd like to keep reading, please do. Finally, there are still a few wrap-up sailing posts coming, so stay tuned.

And with that out of the way....

I recently became a UK citizen. As soon as that became official, I registered to vote, so I was able participate in the Brexit referendum. Since registering, I've been working to figure out my opinion. And because a few people asked about my opinion, I decided to sketch out my decision and thinking here... too late to actually influence anyone else, as the vote is now closed and results are coming in.

Short answer: Remain.

Slightly longer answer: I think the best possible result would be to leave the EU and do it well, i.e. negotiating an agreement that would maintain most of the benefits of membership while getting rid of most of the burdens. I just think it's incredibly unlikely that it would happen that way. Not only is the uncertainty of leaving huge, I think the downside is more likely than the upside.

So let's get into a few specifics. To the extent the EU is a force for free trade in goods and services and for free movement of people, I think it's generally a good thing. There are some theoretical reasons why limited free-trade areas might be less efficient that a consistent set of tariffs on all trade (basically, you might divert trade from a lower-cost external producer to a higher-cost external producer within the free-trade area), but I don't think this is a significant practical issue. Partial free-trade is more of a stepping stone toward wider free trade.

There are, however, a lot of burdensome regulations that come from the EU. One famous example is regulations on the curvature of bananas/ While often exaggerated in the popular Eurosceptic imagination, the fact they exist at all is ridiculous enough. In one televised debate, an audience member credited EU regulation with ensuring minimum room size in rented accommodation. I don't know the details, but let's assume she's right. This just makes it harder for lower-paid people to afford housing. There are more regulations on working hours and conditions. EU banking regulation can sometimes be a poor fit for the UK market. Each of these examples is individually small, and it's hard to point to clearly identifiable negative impact from each, but they accumulate and reduce the efficiency of the economy. However, at the end of the day, I think the UK is all too capable of imposing burdensome regulation all on its own, so it's not at all clear to me how much there would be to be gained by leaving the EU.

Perhaps the biggest disaster of the European experiment is the euro. Fortunately, the UK has remained out of the single currency and there is no indication that we would ever join, so that's a non-issue here.

A lot of the most heated debate is around immigration. Nobody seems to worried about immigration from Western Europe. Illegal immigration from, say, Northern Africa is illegal anyway. The UK isn't part of the Schengen area, so it does check everyone coming in, who whatever issues there are with lax border control in some parts of the continent giving illegal immigrants access to other countries, it doesn't really impact things here. The biggest real question is around newer EU members, specifically those in Eastern Europe, plus the potential for Turkey. I'm not at all concerned about immigrants "coming here and taking our jobs". In many cases these immigrants are great workers. The Polish bricklayer or the Spanish waiter are stereotypes but also reality, and we're lucky to have them. Do some immigrants come here for more generous benefits? Maybe. But they seem to me to be substantially outnumbered by workers. And there are proposals to require a period of residency before someone is eligible for benefits, which addresses the issue much more directly. Finally, there is some concern over refugees, being welcomed warmly by some countries who are then looking to force others to do the same. This is a complex one for me. I'd like to see a decent alternative for those, e.g., fleeing the war in Syria. But at the same time, I think people are right to be worried about large numbers of refugees coming in,  becoming ghettoized (perhaps through self-segregation, perhaps through normal-segregation), not integrating into society, and becoming a disaffected permanent underclass. I don't have a good answer for this, but I'm not sure that leaving the EU provides that missing answer.

Finally, I think the anti-foreigner sentiment provides so much of the animating energy of the Leave campaign, that I like a Remain vote for its anti-anti-foreigner symbolism. I don't want to paint too broadly here. There are many sensible arguments for leaving, and many sensible people I know making them. But they are nearly drowned out by the objectionably ones. A lot of the Remain arguments are also bad. I actually find most of the arguments I hear from both sides to be pretty awful. But while the Leave side has most of the best arguments, it also has the worst. And the worst are much louder. And that counts for something.

Anyway, soon we'll know. Something.

N 48 deg 12', W 123 deg 55'-- Race 9, Day 25

just a quick update, as the keyoard is acting up. Again.

We've finished!

Eventful last it, as we hit the iggeqst winds of the crossing -- 83 knots
at one point, though the iggest I helmed in was low 70's. We also had
another tethered MO, again quickly recovered with no real danger. The last
stretch was frustrating, as the wind really died, but we finally made it.
Fifth place finish, a little slip at the end, but pretty good for the
smallest crew in the fleet.

More detail when I have a working keyboard. Right now, just looking forward
to Seattle, seeing friends and family, and not being cold or wet for a
while.

46 23, 132 27 -- Race 9, Day 24

I was on the helm a few nights ago as we cracked the 1000 nm mark. I had
this whole post composed in my head about how it the home stretch, about
how 1000 miles is still a long way but in the context of a 5700 mile race,
not to mention nearly 20,000 miles of total sailing I'm doing in this trip
it's not much, about how I could almost taste that beer waiting for me at
the finish.

That feels like an eternity ago.

We're generally making good progress, but conditions remain tough. I keep
going on about the cold, but that really has been the most testing aspect
of this whole experience for me. We had another breakage yesterday, which
slowed us down for a while. The shackle at the top of the running backstay
failed, and it was several hours worth of work to get it replaced,
including two guys going up the mast and dropping all sails for a while. I
was on mother duty at the time, so I missed most of the action, just
keeping dinner and hot drinks going as semi-frozen people would come down
from time to time. The one moment that sticks out for me is hearing Matt
say at one point, "There is every chance this mast is going to come down!"
Fortunately, it never came to that, and by the time I came on watch at 2am,
we were ready to shake out to full main.

We have one more front forecast to come through. It was expected to be
pretty strong, but the forecast has moderated, and now it looks like it
might just give us continued good speed to the finish, likely some time
tomorrow night. Not going to count any chickens just yet though.

336 nm to go.

N 43 deg 25', W 150 deg 33' -- Race 9, Day 21

There wasn't a lot to report for a few days there, thus the lack of posts.
But then, just as I was thinking the Pacific was going to wrap up with a
long, tough, but fairly monotonous slog -- BANG!

It took all of two seconds to realise that the spinnaker halyard had
snapped. Matt later said it was a 50 knot gust, just more than the line
could handle. The Code 3 was streaming out in front of the boat, held only
at the two lower corners. It floated there for a few moments, then fell
into the sea to start dragging down the port side.

Matt, as I've said before, is cool in these situations. "No worries guys.
Tom, grind in on the active sheet. Mark, three wraps on that winch and tail
in the drop sheet. Kat, get some more bodies on deck. Sean, up to the bow,
we're going to have to bring the kite aboard from the tack end." A few
minutes later, I had locked off my line and joined Sean at the bow, where I
noticed the tack line sheath had gone. Sean and I tried to get the sail in,
but there was far too much tension from this huge bag of canvas being
dragged through the water at 10 knots.

We moved further aft and joined the rest of the crew, off watch having made
it on deck now, working to haul the sail in along the length of the boat.
We had some success, but one big bag of sail full of water was just too
much for us to lift. We were working at it when there was another bang, and
we soon realised the tack line had gone.

We were now dragging the sail by the two sheets. Alex said to me that he
would just cut the thing free, and I agreed, but Matt was determined to
save it. He came up with an approach where we would grind in on a sheet,
tie another line as far down the sail as we could, grind in on that, and
repeat. Fine in theory, but....

But nothing. It worked. It took maybe 45 minutes, and there were some big
tears that will take some fixing, but we recovered it. Despite it all being
a mess, it was also a great moment, with the whole team working well
together and salvaging a situation I thought was unsalvageable. It's still
going to take a lot of work to repair the sail, but that's probably one for
land. This leaves us with only the lightweight spinnaker, and there's
nothing in the forecast that looks like we'll be able to fly that. We're at
a bit of a disadvantage now compared to other boats, and we'll have to
catch some real breaks to podium, but we should still make Seattle in good
time.

On a personal note, as far as I know, my repairs held. They certainly
didn't start the problem. I'll check in port whether they survived being
dragged through the water.

It's been relatively easy sailing the past 24 hours, though the nights have
been really, really cold. We have another low expected through tonight,
which should bring with it some higher (but very manageable) winds, and
that should -- SHOULD -- be the last of the heavy weather.

1155 nm to go.

N 41 deg 27', W 166 deg 38' -- Race 9, Day 18

Cold, though not as cold as it was at its worst, but now with added grey
and drizzle. It's clear now to me why the set that musical in the South
Pacific rather than the North Pacific.

***************************************

I read this story a while back, an excerpt from a memoir of a Jewish kid
growing up in New York. One day he went to his grandfather, excited because
Babe Ruth had hit sixty home runs. His grandfather pondered, then asked,
"This thing that Ruth did, is it good for the Jews?"

I'm like that right now about getting to Seattle. If something gets us
there faster, great; if not, I'm indifferent. For example, one of the
overall leaders, I think Garmin, lost their bowsprit. This means they can't
fly a spinnaker, at least not well, so they'll go slower, and it helps us
place better. But this thing that Garmin did, does it get us to Seattle
faster? No? Meh.

On the other hand, usually race position and getting there faster go hand
in hand. Yesterday, we saw some old repairs in our Code 3 weren't holding.
(We inherited this sail after we destroyed our in the kite wrap incident,
so for once, it's not our old repairs that are going.) I spent about five
hour during the night doing repairs, first a bit after our 6pm-10pm watch
ended, then pretty much the whole of the 2am-6am watch. The first part, I
worked with Linda to cut and apply some new adhesive patches; the second
part, I sat on the floor and sewed so they would stay on. We were able to
fly it today, the patches held, and we made good speed. We've pretty much
given up on fixing the Code 2 (the repair might be possible, but the
conditions haven't been conducive to using the sewing machine, nor are
there enough people on board who know how to use ie), so it's important
that we have the Code 3 as an option, and a few hour sewing is a small
price to pay.

**************************************

I continue to be surprised by the amount of breakage and fixing of things.
Just today, the preventer snapped. We fixed it. Reef 2 was in bad shape. We
fixed it. Just lots of wear and tear.

***************************************

I don't want to jinx anything, but we're looking on track for arrival in
the early part of the arrival window. No guarantees, as a lot can happen,
but the slowish start has given way to sustained good speed, and there's
nothing in the forecast that suggests that's going to change. Here's
hoping!

1816 nm to go.

N 41 deg 11', W 173 deg 58' -- Race 9, Day 17

I think I gave an excessively negative impression of morale on board in my
last post. Don't get me wrong, people are a bit on edge, and all those
things I mentioned did happen. And that's without even getting into the
really nitpicky stuff, like who ate more than their share of chocolate or
who did a mediocre job of cleaning the heads.

But the overall atmosphere is pretty good. For example, Justin just had a
laugh about the fact that he never thought he'd be kneading bread while
people wooled a kite around him. Han cracked a joke about how much we're
paying to do this work, and everyone had a laugh. More broadly, we have a
crew where most people get on with most other people and respect what they
bring to the table and the effort they put in most of the time. It's
actually impressive things don't get worse under these conditions. Again,
it's a huge improvement over the last leg. I'm not really sure how to
compare to Leg 4. That was also a really good crew, and people got along
well, I think comparable to now. But I was the new guy on board at that
point. I had little to compare to, and I was really busy just figuring my
own stuff out, so my perspective is completely different.

I do, however, stand by what I said about he cold. That was thoroughly
unpleasant. We had snow. We had rain. We had sleet and hail. These may not
stop the US Postal Service messengers from the swift completion of their
appointed rounds, but they are a bitch to sail in. Fortunately, it broke
slightly last night, and we had a decent morning of sailing today.* We
had the lightweight spinnaker, aka Code 1 up, the sun was out, no water was
coming over the deck, and we were consistently making 10-13 knots. It was
nice while it lasted, but the cold front is coming. And while the forecast
has moderated a bit, it still looks to be a lively one.

*By decent, I mean that I was wearing more clothing that I ever thought
possible, but it was tolerable instead of painful. Talk about defining
deviancy downward.

I don't think I've mentioned race position in a while, which is strange,
because we're doing pretty well. The leader, Derry, has pulled away a bit.
But we're in a group of three boats trading off the next three positions
and pulling away from the fifth and further back boats. We have a real
chance at a podium. This isn't lost on us, but there's more focus on just
getting there.

2113 nm to go